THE VIEW AHEAD
August 18, 2008
Hello
Everyone. Maybe it’s just being the father of a teenager, but
I’m always fascinated and, I can’t help it, also a little amused
when I see an example of “retro-confusion” in which a younger
person is challenged by older but simpler technology than what
they know. Most often it’s the reverse circumstance as I
saw on an airplane recently, where an elderly passenger
struggled to use a seatback entertainment system, and eventually
gave up to stick with the easier-to-use “Celebrity Beach Bodies”
issue of People.
Not that I, of course, paid the least bit of attention to her
magazine.
Within the
next few days, though, the tables turned with two examples of
high tech knowledge being of no help in a low tech circumstance.
I was driving my 14-year-old daughter and three of her friends
when one of the girls started talking about how a relative had
come to visit lately and had “like totally the weirdest car” she
had ever seen. She went on to explain that you couldn’t
even get the window down because there was no button anywhere.
The other girls were aghast… “You were just sealed in there
unless you opened the door?” Then came the explanation,
“Well, there was this ‘thing’ on the door” That ‘thing’, of
course, being a manual window crank which none of them had ever
seen. Now my kid had not jumped into this yet, so I sat
there smugly chuckling as most parents do when someone else’s
child doesn’t have a seat on the clue bus. Just as the
smugness peaked, however, my daughter blurts out, “So what
did you do without
windows?”
Just the
hilarity of raising teenagers? Maybe not. We have a new
employee who recently graduated from a great college with an
honors degree. On her second day we needed to hand cut a
check and she suddenly was face to face with OMG………………..an
electric typewriter. Nine voided checks later, one was
ready for signature.
You know,
maybe this could be a new service we offer- useless outmoded
technology training. Need help understanding your 8-track?
Can’t rewind your Betamax? Having trouble loading film into your
Polaroid?
OK, on to the
high tech world of travel.
In-Flight Wireless Connectivity-
My guess is
that there will be two distinct groups of passengers with vastly
different views of the upcoming availability of wireless
in-flight connectivity. Some will embrace it as a way to
check emails, do Internet research, or just occupy time during a
long flight. The other group will regret loosing one of
the last great places to escape the increasingly faster pace of
the business world. Given the number of travelers flipping
on their PDAs before the tread-smoke clears at touchdown, the
“embrace” seems by far to be the bigger group.
A company
called Aircell is leading the in-flight wireless movement with
their GoGo product. Aircell paid $32 million at the recent
FCC auction to buy frequencies it will use for the service.
Special transmission equipment on the plane will communicate
with 92 ground antennas the company has built or leased
throughout the
American will install GoGo in 15 767 jets flying
trans-continental routes for a six month trial. Delta is
also currently testing GoGo in a few aircraft and plans to
install it initially in its MD-88 fleet. Based on the
result, the carrier may then install the system in its entire
domestic fleet. Southwest will start testing a different
company’s Wi-Fi product, Row 44, on a few aircraft next month,
as will Alaska Airlines. Cost to use the system will vary
but will typically be in the range of $8-$10 to connect and a
per minute charge for certain services.
Laptop Security Changes-
It’s possible
that you may not have to remove your laptop from a carry-on bag
when transiting airport security on your next trip. The
TSA implemented a new policy over the weekend in which laptops
carried in “checkpoint friendly” cases could be run through
x-ray screening with the unit inside. The wrinkle is that
the TSA is not certifying such cases, but only issuing
guidelines for manufactures stating that a case must provide a
clear and uncluttered view of the laptop.
In addition to
the material of the case itself, these elements must also be
present to avoid having to remove the laptop: a separate
compartment holding only the laptop and nothing else, lies flat
on the belt, no metal, such as a snap or zipper, in the laptop
compartment as well as no pockets in that compartment.
It’s expected
that many business travelers will take a trial and error
approach with their current laptop case during security
screening. This might cause a temporary slow-down in some
lines with the eventual result being an overall faster movement
in the near future.
Ted is Dead-
United’s
one-time plan to bring Southwest to its knees with a low-fare
airline within an airline, TED, is now deceased. You
haven’t officially been able to buy a ticket on TED for a while
now, but the A320s in that livery and seat configuration were
still prowling around United’s route network. All of the
56 jets will be repainted and re-configured to match UA’s normal
narrow body aircraft seating layout by next spring, including a
first-class section.
Since I’m not
one to poke fun at the misadventures of an airline, I of course
won’t make any negative comments. It does kind of make you
wonder if the same brainiac that came up with TED developed
United’s TV commercials currently airing during the Olympics.
High Fares? Checked bag fees? A 59.3% on-time arrival rate in
June?.............................Hey, forget that stuff, let’s
show them a cartoon octopus playing an organ; now that will get
people on our airline!
Frontier Bankruptcy Financing-
Frontier
Airlines, which currently is operating in Chapter 11 bankruptcy,
has accepted $175 million in Debtor in Possession financing from
a consortium of investment banks who are already unsecured
lenders to the carrier. Frontier has already tapped the
first $30 million of the new credit facility.
Based on this
development, I’ve taken Frontier off our caution list.
We’ll be watching the situation very closely, however, since in
the airline business $30 million can go faster than the time it
takes to crank down a car window.
Fare Moderation-
Although fares
clearly remain higher overall than earlier in the year, costs
have moderated on many routes without the continued surge that
had been happening. The major reduction in seat capacity
and flight frequencies that will start next month and build
steam through the end of the year remain in place. The
decline in oil costs to under $115 a barrel versus a $160+ high
this summer, although good news for airlines and us when
visiting the gas pumps, is not expected to significantly change
the capacity cuts the carriers are deploying.
The best
advice remains to make travel plans as far in advance as
possible, especially if flying at peak times or on high volume
routes. I’m already noticing a higher number of sold-out
flights that are not available at any fare. You may have
seen the NBC Evening News
broadcast recently when Brian Williams closed with a comment
about his experience that afternoon of trying to book
Thanksgiving Holiday flights for his family. His comment
was that if you are traveling around Thanksgiving to where
anyone else also wants to go, and you haven’t already bought
your ticket; think about just putting up the Christmas Tree
early.
Airline Safety Issues-
Questions have
come up again about airline safety. A couple of high
profile and potentially catastrophic events, pilots trying to
pressure their carrier into a better contract and higher FAA
vigilance in monitoring aircraft maintenance has raised the
issue in some people’s minds.
The Qantas
in-flight depressurization was caused by an oxygen tank that
exploded and blew a hole in the cargo section of the fuselage.
Despite the obvious terror for passengers, no deaths or serious
injuries occurred and it certainly demonstrated the strength and
airworthiness of the 747-400.
An American
Airlines 757 bound for
The national
media also reported claims by some pilots that they were being
pressured by their airlines to carry insufficient amounts of
fuel for cost reasons. It’s of course impossible to know
what happened in any specific circumstance, but this seems
extremely unlikely. The fuel load minimum requirements are
set by the FAA and subject to random audit and huge fines with
exact documentation readily available to government inspectors.
This isn’t a place you would expect an airline to skirt the
rules and expect not to get caught. The fuel load for any
flight is signed off on by a flight dispatcher who is licensed
just like an airline mechanic or a pilot. To cut corners
would put their license at risk. The flight dispatcher’s
position was established many years ago by the old CAB as a
firewall between any unreasonable activity by a pilot or an
airline. This is not the case, though, with foreign flag
carriers who don’t have the flight dispatcher’s position.
In any case, there has never been a case in
The FAA
announced last week that American has been fined $7 million for
safety infractions in which they operated aircraft, without the
necessary verification testing of key safety apparatus and
without repairing equipment reported to be functioning
improperly- specifically auto pilots. Although American
disputes the FAA action, I don’t understand why AA doesn’t get
it. It’s not about whether the airline thinks the
maintenance items are critical; the FAA has the only vote that
counts. The
positive point is that this shows the heightened vigilance of
the FAA which is of unquestioned importance.
So despite the
number of emails I’ve received recently regarding airline
safety, there doesn’t seem to be evidence of a major declining
trend. Instead it appears to be more a series of high profile
events occurring at a time when airlines are under scrutiny
anyway due to new fees and higher fares. That said, however, as
evidenced by the adjacent photo, an airplane is just a big
aluminum tube that requires an intricate network of complex
support, equipment and expertise to stay in the air.
Hopefully anyone connected with the airline industry never loses
sight of the core competencies of this business.
I’ll close
with a humorous comment by a sports broadcaster about the images
of Brett Favre climbing on and off private jets recently going
to Green Bay and then to New York after he was traded. His
comment was that it was probably cheaper to charter a jet given
what the airlines charge now for checked bags what with all of
Brett Favre’s emotional baggage.
Have a great
week!
Howard